Oscars

15 for 23. Amazingly, my pessimistic strategy accounts for most of my misses. Perhaps it’s time to give the Academy more credit.

Before I defend myself, some thoughts on the ceremony itself:

This year’s Oscar race hasn’t been quite as monotonous as last year’s. Even then, All Quiet on the Western Front managed some surprises on the night where we expected Everything Everywhere All at Once dominance. Which goes to show that this is all pointless and those of us that try to predict the results have no idea what we’re doing.

But hey, that’s why it’s fun.

If you need some last-minute advice for your Oscar pool, here’s my logic for what I’m expecting to win, as well as what I’m hoping against hope to hear actually happen.

This is very last-minute, but I'm watching the clock count down to the start of the ceremony and feel compelled to just throw this out there. I haven't been keeping up very closely with the races because I've been too focused on other things the last couple of months. These…

The nominees for this year’s Academy Awards will be announced tomorrow morning. Rather than try to predict the actual lists of nominees for each category, I thought I’d try something I’ve seen from other blogs and make some assorted predictions along with my sense of their likelihood. So I did that, and then realized that in this particular year it probably would have been easier to just predict the actual nominations. Oops!

So here are miscellaneous items I’ll be watching out for to see how the storylines develop. I think of it as 50%+ being things I’m actually predicting will happen and <50% being things I think are unlikely to happen but would be interested to see. If my instincts are correct, about 5 or 6 of these should come true Tuesday morning. That’s math. I took a statistics class once.

Here we go!

Normally every year I make a big write-up of what I think will win and should win at the Oscars. For a variety of reasons I don't have time to make a granular post this time, unfortunately. But to keep up the tradition I'm going to just dump it here…

The Academy announced the nominees for this year's Oscars Tuesday morning. I tried to resist the urge to tweet too much because I'm trying to use the internet less, but, well https://twitter.com/pinguinoEO/status/1491044130407034888 sometimes duty calls. So I thought I'd lay down my thoughts on the nominations in a more coherent…