This year’s Oscar race hasn’t been quite as monotonous as last year’s. Even then, All Quiet on the Western Front managed some surprises on the night where we expected Everything Everywhere All at Once dominance. Which goes to show that this is all pointless and those of us that try to predict the results have no idea what we’re doing.
But hey, that’s why it’s fun.
If you need some last-minute advice for your Oscar pool, here’s my logic for what I’m expecting to win, as well as what I’m hoping against hope to hear actually happen.
Above the Line
In the major categories, we’ve got a bunch of absolute certainties, a couple complete question marks, and nothing in between.
Oppenheimer for Picture and Directing, and Downey and Randolph in their respective categories, are open-the-envelope-now, bet-your-mortgage-on-it levels of locked in. Cilian Murphy actually had a race against America’s sweetheart Paul Giamatti for a minute, but post-SAG Awards those dreams have dried up. As much as I want to see Paul Giamatti holding an Oscar, I can’t argue against awarding Murphy’s monumental performance.
Best Actress will end up being the most intriguing result to watch. Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone have split the precursors similarly to Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett last year. I’m betting on SAG winner Gladstone, which would also make for better television.
Finally, the screenplay categories are total chaos, in large part due to the decision to categorize Barbie as an adapted screenplay. I think the category confusion plus a desire to give Barbie something to “make up” for a perceived Directing snub will work in its favor. Maybe? I truly have no idea. I’ll be surprised no matter which names get read tonight.
Best Picture
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer, because there’s no way Past Lives or The Zone of Interest will be in that envelope
Best Directing
Will Win: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Should Win: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Best Actor
Will Win: Cilian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Should Win: Cilian Murphy (Oppenheimer), but I sure wouldn’t complain if it were Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Best Actress
Will Win: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Should Win: Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Should Win: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Should Win: I’d love to be contrarian here but yeah, given the options, Randolph
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: The Holdovers
Should Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Barbie
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Genres & Shorts
I was very bad at watching the International and Documentary nominees, so I’m going to sit those out on the “should win” front. Lucky for me both of them seem settled for “will win.” The Zone of Interest, like Drive My Car and Parasite, is the only International Feature nominee also nominated for Best Picture, and 20 Days in Mariupol naturally follows last year’s winner Navalny. For Animated Feature, all hope is not lost for Miyazaki’s allegedly final film taking home the prize should voters decide they can pass on the middle entry of the Spider-Verse trilogy. Don’t count on it, though.
Predicting the shorts is always impossible, so I have a default strategy: Expect the worst, hope for the best. “Book banning is bad” and “I recognize the name John Lennon” are compelling motivators for tuned-out voters that also happen to align with the unquestionably worst films in each category. Shoo-ins. On the other hand, name recognition could finally deliver Wes Anderson his first Oscar.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Should Win: The Boy and the Heron
Best International Feature
Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Should Win: Abstain
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Should Win: Abstain
Best Documentary Short
Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning
Should Win: The Last Repair Shop
Best Live Action Short
Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Should Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar please and thank you!!!!
Best Animated Short
Will Win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
Should Win: ANYTHING ELSE
The Crafts
Predicting these comes down to finding the balance between “What did the guild’s awards like?” and “What would the general voters like?” (The Oscars have their share of “median voters,” too.) This year, that reasoning leads you repeatedly to two conclusions: Barbie if the category calls for pink, and Oppenheimer if it calls for drama. I’m going to zag a little and predict that Poor Things‘s surreal design will peel off some Barbie votes or inherit them where she isn’t nominated.
Best Original Score
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Best Original Song
Will Win: “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie)
Should Win: “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie)
Best Sound
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: The Zone of Interest
Best Production Design
Will Win: Poor Things
Should Win: Napoleon
Best Cinematography
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Poor Things
Should Win: Abstain
Best Costume Design
Will Win: Barbie
Should Win: Poor Things
Best Editing
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: The Creator
Should Win: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning: Part 1